The Table under the sub-heading Future Bitcoin Epochs is the one that probably influences the future BTC price more than any other factor. Your analysis is excellent - as far as I know nobody else has considered future halvings of supply as a price driver. I have computed that - assuming miners' revenue needs to increase 10% each year to sustain the BTC blockchain - they need about 50% more per BTC mined each epoch on average while the supply of BTC halves in each epoch. That means the BTC price must increase by an average 3x each epoch. In Epoch 1 (2009-2012) the BTC supply was 10500000, and the average price was US$3.28. Miners received an estimated US$34.4 million for mining Bitcoin in the 1st epoch. The second epoch (2012-2016) the supply was 5250000BTC at an average price of US$342.02, yielding an estimated US$1.80 billion. Epoch 3 (2016-2020) produced an estimated US$16.52 billion for miners from 2625000 BTC at an estimated US$6295.17 per BTC. The supply in epoch 4 (2020-2024) of 1312500 BTC should yield a revenue of US$46.67 billion at a projected average price of US$35561/BTC. In epoch 5 (2024-2028) there will be 656250 Bitcoin created. I believe the revenue growth rate will be much lower than seen to date, and I assume that it will grow 50% in this epoch. Therefore the average Bitcoin price must be at least US$107000 for this epoch for a total miner revenue of US$70 billion. Similarly for epoch 6, the projected figures are US$105 billion from 328105 Bitcoin, for an average price of US$32000 per Bitcoin. These figures ignore the fees earned from transactions, but they do show that reducing rewards for block closure will be a significant price driver. We must also not forget that a severe bear market in Bitcoin could result in the demise of the Bitcoin blockchain, as fees and rewards combined become insufficient to sustain the miners. The probability of such a scenario is small, although it will increase in the future. Thank you for an excellent analysis.
The Table under the sub-heading Future Bitcoin Epochs is the one that probably influences the future BTC price more than any other factor. Your analysis is excellent - as far as I know nobody else has considered future halvings of supply as a price driver. I have computed that - assuming miners' revenue needs to increase 10% each year to sustain the BTC blockchain - they need about 50% more per BTC mined each epoch on average while the supply of BTC halves in each epoch. That means the BTC price must increase by an average 3x each epoch. In Epoch 1 (2009-2012) the BTC supply was 10500000, and the average price was US$3.28. Miners received an estimated US$34.4 million for mining Bitcoin in the 1st epoch. The second epoch (2012-2016) the supply was 5250000BTC at an average price of US$342.02, yielding an estimated US$1.80 billion. Epoch 3 (2016-2020) produced an estimated US$16.52 billion for miners from 2625000 BTC at an estimated US$6295.17 per BTC. The supply in epoch 4 (2020-2024) of 1312500 BTC should yield a revenue of US$46.67 billion at a projected average price of US$35561/BTC. In epoch 5 (2024-2028) there will be 656250 Bitcoin created. I believe the revenue growth rate will be much lower than seen to date, and I assume that it will grow 50% in this epoch. Therefore the average Bitcoin price must be at least US$107000 for this epoch for a total miner revenue of US$70 billion. Similarly for epoch 6, the projected figures are US$105 billion from 328105 Bitcoin, for an average price of US$32000 per Bitcoin. These figures ignore the fees earned from transactions, but they do show that reducing rewards for block closure will be a significant price driver. We must also not forget that a severe bear market in Bitcoin could result in the demise of the Bitcoin blockchain, as fees and rewards combined become insufficient to sustain the miners. The probability of such a scenario is small, although it will increase in the future. Thank you for an excellent analysis.
Apologies: the estimated average price of Bitcoin in epoch 6 (2028-2032) is US$320000 per Bitcoin, not US$32000 as stated.