BOLD combines the world’s two most liquid alternative assets on a risk-adjusted basis. Due to their naturally low correlation, the diversification benefits of holding both assets have been unusually high. Bitcoin prefers risk-on market conditions, while Gold prefers risk-off.

To see the slide pack, please click here.

BOLD Performance

In April, BOLD rose by 3.4%, while Bitcoin returned 7.3%, Gold 1.0%, and global equities 0.5%, all in USD terms. It is nice to see Bitcoin and Gold back in front of equities.

Bitcoin, Gold, BOLD, and Equities in USD – July 2026

Over the past year, BOLD has returned -3.9%, Bitcoin has returned -46.0%, while Gold has returned +23.0%, and equities +20.4%. Equities have been strong since May, while Bitcoin and Gold have come under pressure as the dollar has strengthened. It appears that the worst of this correction is behind us, but the new uptrend has not yet begun.

Bitcoin, Gold, BOLD, and Global Equities in USD - Past Year

Over the past five years, BOLD has returned +132.7%, while Bitcoin has returned +51.4%, Gold +123.1%, and equities +69.5%. The average return of Bitcoin and Gold was 87.3%, yet BOLD returned 132.7%, demonstrating 45.5% of added value above the average. This is mainly driven by rebalancing transactions. Note how BOLD is now ahead of Gold, despite a weak Bitcoin.

Bitcoin, Gold, BOLD, and Global Equities in USD - Past Five Years

This point is best demonstrated by the Bitcoin price high at $19,041 on 17^th December 2017, which seemed extreme at the time. Since then, BOLD has returned +378.5%, while Bitcoin has returned +256.8%, Gold +222.0%, and equities +166.6%. The average return of Bitcoin and Gold was 239.4%, yet BOLD was +139.1% ahead. Over these longer periods, BOLD has been comfortably ahead of both Bitcoin and Gold. While Bitcoin and Gold have seen similar returns, BOLD has stayed ahead. The recent weakness in both assets has dragged BOLD down with the average.

Bitcoin, Gold, BOLD, and Global Equities in USD - Since Bitcoin’s 2017 Price High

Monthly Rebalancing of the BOLD ETP

BOLD allocates to Bitcoin and Gold on a risk-adjusted basis using historical volatility calculated from daily price movements. The less volatile asset, which has lower daily price moves, gets a higher weight in the index at the end of the monthly rebalancing.

It is notable that Bitcoin’s 360-day volatility has been falling, while Gold’s has been rising. Note that Bitcoin’s short-term 180-day volatility has risen in June. For Gold, the 180-day measure is still leading Gold’s volatility higher. The gap between the asset volatilities has never been narrower than it is today.

Bitcoin and Gold’s Past 360-day Volatility

Rather than having the same amount of value invested in each asset, the BOLD strategy aims to hold equal amounts of “risk” in each asset and is hence “risk-weighted”. The volatility of Bitcoin and Gold over the past 360 days was observed to be 34% and 26.2%, respectively. The increase in Gold’s volatility has been significant.

If Bitcoin and Gold had the same volatility, the weights would be 50/50. Indeed, if Gold’s volatility were ever higher than Bitcoin’s, then Bitcoin would have a larger allocation. The volatility measures have resulted in new target weights of 43.5% for Bitcoin and 56.5% for Gold, using this formula.

Asset allocation is an important feature. Over the long term, the aim is to equalise the risk in each asset. In 2017 and 2018, BOLD had relatively low exposure to Bitcoin due to its high volatility at the time, which held it in good stead in the 2018 bear market. At other times, it has generally been in the 20% to 25% range, with the remaining balance in Gold.

Bitcoin: Daily Target Weight

The monthly rebalancing transactions, which repeatedly top up the weaker asset, have added significant value compared to a buy-and-hold strategy. Using the weight in bitcoin, you can see how the monthly rebalancing brings the asset allocation back into line. Repeatedly doing this adds value while maintaining a constant level of risk.

Bitcoin: Daily Weight and Target Weight

The daily weights deviate much more than the monthly target weights due to the intra-month price movements between Bitcoin and Gold. For example, Bitcoin has beaten Gold over the last two months, and so Bitcoin’s exposure has been reduced back down to the target weight during the monthly rebalancing. This ensures the strategy maintains the optimised weights for Bitcoin and Gold.

This process keeps the amount of risk, as defined by volatility, roughly the same in each asset. That means BOLD maintains its risk level over time, without being overly exposed to either Bitcoin or Gold. This explains why BOLD’s volatility is so low, a key advantage over holding Bitcoin and Gold separately.

BOLD’s Volatility Is Comparable with Gold

Risk is not just a matter of volatility but of maximum drawdowns. Historically, Bitcoin drawdowns have been severe and Gold drawdowns, in the minds of many, less so. But in the 1980s and 1990s, Gold had prolonged drawdowns, and that could happen again one day. By diversifying between the assets, the largest drawdowns have been dampened. BOLD drawdowns have been much lower than either Bitcoin or Gold alone. The current drawdown is 22.5% which compares with the 25% drawdown seen in 2022.

Max Drawdown: Gold, Bitcoin, and BOLD

This is important as BOLD compounds returns by regularly locking in profits. Family offices, with long-term investment horizons, understand this principle. Many opt for conservative, compounding, absolute return strategies over beating the index, as if a portfolio halves, it needs to double to get back to square one. By avoiding large drawdowns, compounding can take place at a higher rate over the long term.

Volatility Comparison

Many believe Bitcoin to be a highly volatile asset when in reality it has lower volatility than NVIDIA, Tesla, and META, and only slightly more than Amazon. Gold has lower volatility than Microsoft, as does BOLD.

Volatility Harvesting

Not only does risk-weighting reduce overall volatility, but the rebalancing transactions add value through a process known as “volatility harvesting”. As the linked paper by Bouchey, Nemtchinov, Paulsen, and Stein states, “volatility is a drag on the compounding effect.”

Volatility Harvesting_JWM_Fall_2012

While Bitcoin and Gold travel along different paths, it is notable how BOLD has historically been highly correlated with the global M2 money supply, much more so than Bitcoin or Gold in isolation. BOLD has also been an efficient way to express this macroeconomic view. M2 has grown from $60 trillion in 2015 to $118.2 trillion today. In that time, BOLD has beaten M2 by 5x, in a calm manner. That ratio of outperformance has eased back in 2026, following a strong run in the two prior years.

BOLD Versus the Global Money Supply

Bitcoin and Gold ETF Flows

Over the past 90 days, Bitcoin and Gold ETFs have seen outflows. The correlation between the asset flows has generally been negative but is currently positive. We assume this will not last for too long, as real rates peak, and the dollar rally stalls.

The total value of Bitcoin and Gold ETFs is $510 billion, which represents a significant fall since the January peak.

BOLD ETP

The 21Shares Bitcoin Gold ETP (BOLD) tracks the BOLD Index. The fund now holds $30.2 million in Bitcoin and Gold, held in safe custody with Copper for Bitcoin and JP Morgan for Gold. The GBP volume is shown in blue.

21Shares ByteTree BOLD ETP Price and Volume by Share Class in US$

The BOLD ETP outflows from June have stabilised. Volumes in July have been much lower which reflects the negative sentiment around the assets.

BOLD ETP Listings

The 21Shares Bitcoin Gold ETP (BOLD) is listed in Switzerland, Germany, the Netherlands, France, Sweden, Italy, and the United Kingdom, actively trading in CHF, EUR, USD, SEK, and GBP. The ticker is BOLD.

The 21Shares Bitcoin Gold ETP trades in the primary market, meaning that purchases and sales result in direct buy or sell transactions of Bitcoin and Gold from the market. For further information, please visit BOLDETF.com, which offers extensive data and charts to help investors better understand the benefits of the strategy.

Recent Videos

Please watch our recent videos with:

• Charlie Erith, Wiston Capital (March 2026)

• 21Shares with Max Michielsen and Darius Moukhtarzadeh (March 2026)

• Chris Wood, Chief Equity Strategist at Jefferies (February 2026)

• John Reade, Senior Market Strategist at the World Gold Council (January 2026)

• Izabella Kaminska, Founder of The Blind Spot (January 2026)

• Adrian Fritz, Chief Investment Strategist at 21Shares (January 2026)

Product Details

Contact

For information on investing in BOLD, contact bold@bytetree.com.

If your investment firm or media outlet would like a private briefing on BOLD, we will be happy to oblige. If a physical meeting is not possible, we can arrange a Zoom call.

Further Information

• Kaiko Index Provider

• 21Shares Bitcoin Gold (BOLD) ETP

• BOLDETF.com

“Global Trends tracks where global momentum is flowing — across countries, sectors, and stocks — giving investors the opportunity to act before the crowd.”

The World Index was weakening, but a rally late in the week returned it to a ByteTrend Score of 5 in USD. It is remarkable how this enormous rotation in equity markets remains invisible from the World Index.

World Index – Developed Markets – Daily

Dollar Weakens

The US Dollar weakened sharply at the same time. The world index is dominated by US stocks (70% of the total), but the remaining 30% are international, so a falling dollar mechanically translates those higher in USD terms, lifting the index without the underlying stocks actually repricing. The weak dollar explains the return to a score of 5.

FX Cross Rates – stripping out the dollar

The dollar weakness came through via a stronger yen, following intervention by both the Bank of Japan and the US Treasury. The yen is too cheap, but Japanese rates are too low, making the carry trade attractive.

Regional Performance

Chips rallied on Friday after a sharp selloff in July, driving EM higher. The UK has been strong while the US market has lagged.

Global Equity Breadth – CAPR

The small increase in strong trends relative to the index last week has reversed. The number of weak trends continues to decline, as formerly weak stocks are improving, becoming neutral trends. A few weeks ago, 70% of stocks were Bear Trends, now, it’s 62%.

Sector Breadth in CAPR – Financials Lonely at the Top

This shows the breadth by sector. Only Financials have a large and growing proportion of Leading Trends. Technology was stronger in May, but its Leaders are fading. Energy could surge if financial markets lose patience with the President Who Cried Peace Deal. Hormuz remains closed, ships are not moving, and inventories continue to decline, but the tweet remains mightier than the barrel for now. There is little strength elsewhere, although Cyclicals, Healthcare, Real Estate, and Defensives are all seeing their share of Bear Trends decline in this rotation.

Industry average CAPR Score

The hardware-to-software rotation is clear. Yet many industry groups are perking up. The leadership is broadening.

Net Winners - Stay Long Energy, Materials, Financials

The winners-less-losers metric guides asset allocators. This continues to show how concentrated global alpha is. Only three geographical sectors are delivering outperformance: European Financials and Energy, and Asian Technology. Asian Communications and Consumer Defensives are the weakest.

Trend Classification, CAPR

For the first time since February, there are more Leading Trends than Bears. The deficit has been shrinking since mid-May, as a weaker index and the rotation from Tech into defensive sectors have reduced the number of relative losers.

Trend Type Performance

Since the rotation began on 29 May, the Bear and Weakening trends have outperformed the Leading and Emerging categories. This week, Bear trends rose by 4.3%, while the Leaders also rose, by 0.7%. In June and July, Leading has fallen by 6%, while Bear has risen 10%.

Zooming out, the jaws continue to close, as the Leading Trends’ outperformance fades.

Regions and Industries Average Relative Score

This table (below) shows the average CAPR score for each global industry, by region and in total.

The headline is that Hardware continued to weaken, while software strengthened sharply. Hardware peaked at an average CAPR score of 4.1 in early June, now it’s 3.6 (down from 3.8 a week ago). Software bottomed at an average of 0.6 in February, now it’s 1.4 (a big jump from 1.0 a week ago). These average CAPR score changes reflect the reversing trend strength of each industry.

The broader market rotation stems from this relationship, because Software represents an array of “AI losers”, which are now rallying as the “AI winners” (Hardware) roll over. Healthcare, Automakers, Luxury, Food & Beverage, Media, Leisure, Chemicals, and other value-biased or beaten-down sectors are all picking up. The AI trade had become so large that a trickle of capital out of Tech Hardware leads to a flood back into these unloved areas.

Somewhat separately to this rotation, Financials continue to strengthen, as rates continue their upward march. This includes REITs, albeit from a lower starting point.

User Guide

Refer to our GTI: User Guide for an overview of the key concepts and terminology used in this report. These concepts may take a little bit of getting used to, but they are very powerful once you do.

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The idea was that software, which has disrupted business practices for five decades, would now be disrupted by AI. We believe that view was overdone, and now the market agrees.

Hardware vs Software

The opportunity is in software stocks where lower share prices now offer good value. This sector has always enjoyed high margins and growth, and now they have value too.

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Bitcoin Daily

This is the quietest Bitcoin base I have ever witnessed; 2014, 2018, and 2022 were all frenetic affairs, and 2022 was even front-page news. This time, the world has forgotten, but not according to Google Trends for the search term “Bitcoin”.

Bitcoin Search Term

Interest is far from dead, but the hype cycle almost certainly is. Another thesis is that Bitcoin likes rising rates and inflation. Rates have been rising, which should be bullish, but inflation expectations are low and falling, at least in the short-term. This is unhelpful for the likes of Bitcoin and gold.

The ByteTree Money map

I showed this recently, but Bitcoin bulls cannot ignore the fact that the two-year real rates are still rising. Most of that is due to inflation expectations, which are down to 2.2%. As I said last time, this is a high number.

Two-Year Real Rates

The best thing about high numbers is that they will fall. Bitcoin is resilient in the face of a tough macro environment, where real rates are high and the dollar is in a bull market. Resilience is bullish.

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Venture has become increasingly diversified, albeit with a hard asset bias. That should come as no surprise, as I have always favoured commodities and materials, not only as diversifiers, but as a strong source of returns.

Venture was well ahead of the market in January, primarily due to the gold and silver miners. Since then, it has given back a little ground but is picking up again.

With the portfolio fully invested, adding new stocks to Venture will mean selling old ones to make room. That is going to get interesting.

Venture specialises in value and momentum, i.e. stocks that have bottomed and offer great value. On the one hand, value investors like to give their stocks time to recover. On the other hand, the portfolio needs to maintain its relevance. We aim to balance these opposing forces.

The excitement is the ever-expanding data set that we have built at ByteTree, which helps us find great opportunities from around the world. This is only going to expand further, and I am very excited about Venture’s prospects over the coming years.

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“Global Trends tracks where global momentum is flowing — across countries, sectors, and stocks — giving investors the opportunity to act before the crowd.”

The World Index maintains a ByteTrend Score of 4 in USD. If the price touches the red 30-day min line, that makes it a 3.

World Index – Developed Markets – Daily

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Global Breadth – CAPR

Breadth has expanded as new entrants from banking and insurance have picked up. This is the first expansion since April.

Net Winners

The winners-less-losers metric guides asset allocators. Energy is strong, alongside Utilities. Real Estate is the newcomer, while Financials now dominate.

Sector Average Trend Score - CAPR

The recoveries in Energy, Finance and Real Estate are notable. Energy is political again as the war runs in a stop-go cycle. Finance has been strong for some time, but Insurance is looking strong compared to banks. Real Estate is finally out of the doldrums despite rising bond yields. Communications, which includes internet stocks, remains weak.

US 30-Year Treasury Yield

The long bond is reaching for the skies, which is driving the strength in financials. There is only so much the economy can take, and a material rise from here will put downward pressure on the economy.

Trend Type Performance

The divergence, or “jaws”, continues. The leaders are lagging the losers, with the best group being weakening trades since May. This is normal in a rotation. To be clear, this week’s weakening trends are typically 30% to 40% below their relative highs in recent months. That can start to look deeply oversold.

Regions and Industries Average Relative Score

This table (below) shows the average CAPR score for each global industry, by region and in total.

Most industries, strong and weak, had a positive week.

At the top of the table, Tech Hardware bounced slightly, following a five-week slide. Banking & Lending’s recent strength continued, most notably in Europe, but the American banks kicked off reporting season with very strong results, too. Insurance now has the highest % of stocks as leaders of any industry, and completes the top three here, with equal strength across geographies. Energy has bounced strongly in recent weeks, but given the weekend’s news (or lack of it), that may change again in the coming days.

In the middle of the table, Investment stocks joined other financials on the rise, and Infrastructure, Transport, Construction, Utilities, and even Metals & Mining all strengthened relative to the index. Only General Retail and Leisure stocks slipped.

At the bottom of the table, Software gave back ground, continuing its anti-correlation with Hardware, after a few months of recovery. Food & Beverage was also weak, while Manufacturing, Autos, and Telecoms all picked up.

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The gold price correction from January can be attributed to several things, not least, the market was overdone. Yet the ByteTrend Score for gold in bonds has turned up. Gold is doing its job but is proving resilient in the face of another bond crisis.

What happened to Trump’s expected rate cuts? When bond yields are below interest rates, we can expect cuts, but when they are above, hikes become more likely.

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Gold and the US Dollar

The long bond is leading yields higher, and back to 2006 levels. Easy money tends to cure all ills in financial markets, in contrast to tight money, which becomes a wrecking ball. The stockmarket peaked in 2000 and 2007, and both peaks came after a surge in bond yields. There was another tantrum in October 2023, and you can’t blame the UK PM, Liz Truss, for that because she came a year earlier. The equity bull market did not resume until yields turned down. Then today, even after lower inflation data and promises of rate cuts, the long bond yield trades at the highest level since 2006.

The US Long Bond Yield

Little wonder that savvy investors and the central banks are reducing exposure to bonds in favour of gold. In terms of asset allocation, I have always considered gold an alternative to bonds because it is a form of money. That is a resilient form of money which is at its best when all else comes into question.

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In January 2015, I coined the term “super bull” to describe gold’s new regime. The thesis was that gold has tended to perform very well when the bond market goes wrong. This is despite the fact that when the bond market is well behaved, the gold price tends to mimic it. I show the long bond and gold between 1996 and 2020.

Gold and the Long Bond – 1996 to 2020

You could be mistaken in thinking that gold always trades like a bond. Going back to the 1970s and adding the past five years tells a different story. Bonds collapsed in the 1970s, when gold roared, and again in the 2020s. On both occasions, gold didn’t simply have a bull market that followed a bond bull market, but a super bull, which countered a bond market collapse.

Gold and the Long Bond – 1970s to 2026

The super bull shows up in the red line, which shows the price of gold measured in the long bond. On this basis, the 2000 to 2011 bull market was not nearly as notable as the super bulls in the 1970s and recently.

The recent price action of the gold super bull thesis is what has gotten me so excited for this issue. Gold measured in the long bond has turned the corner. The gold price correction since January can be attributed to several things, not least, the market was overdone. Yet the ByteTrend Score for gold in bonds has turned up. Gold is doing its job but proving resilient in the face of another bond crisis.

Gold vs the Long Bond

My last chart on this theme looks closely at the post-pandemic bond bust. Bonds peaked on 4 August 2020, two days ahead of gold. The long bond then fell by 58% into the 2023 Treasury Tantrum while gold eased back just 7%. The gold bull took off once bonds stabilised, and not before. Indeed, in 2026, we have seen bonds turn down from late February, and already, gold is starting to stabilise.

Gold vs the Long Bond – from the Bond Peak in 2020

It could be that the bond market smells inflation, but as usual, it isn’t showing up in breakevens, which show expected future inflation derived from the price of TIPS. No doubt it will one day, but we have been waiting for several years, and it never seems to happen.

US Inflation Expectations

This time the latest CPI print came in soft, as oil slipped back to $70. But in just a few weeks, it’s already back at $100, so don’t expect soft CPI data to last. It is harder to imagine the next few years without an inflation shock than with one. After all, electricity demand is set to soar, well ahead of supply, just as supply chains, tariffs, and conflict continue to disrupt.

The 1970s Inflation Analogue

And of course, the US public debt is on the verge of reaching $40 trillion. The interest bill is around $1 trillion in 2026. This crowds out other public spending, puts upward pressure on taxes, and makes the economy unstable. There is no end in sight. No politician will do anything about this until there is a full-blown crisis.

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USA Government Debt and Nominal GDP

The answer is to own gold and perhaps top up the next time the bond market stabilises. That could be imminent, or this latest selloff may have further to go. The point is to buy the dips in this bond crash. Don’t buy bonds on the bond dips; buy gold.

Bitcoin

Alternatively, hold some Bitcoin alongside your gold. Bitcoin has had a rough year, but the worst appears to be over. There is some sort of four-year cycle in Bitcoin, and that ought to be turning up soon, and probably already has.

Bitcoin vs Gold

Both assets lie at the heart of the debasement trade, and that is why I created the BOLD strategy. Over five years, gold is up 126.3%, and Bitcoin is up 83%. Both are ahead of global equities, which have managed 68.8%, including dividends. Remarkably, BOLD towers above all despite only holding Bitcoin and gold with no leverage. This demonstrates the power of risk weightings and regular portfolio rebalancing. BOLD was made for this era.

Bitcoin, Gold, Equities, and BOLD – Five Years

You can follow BOLD’s Bitcoin and Gold weights for free on our website, BOLDETF.com. For BOLD product details on the 21Shares Bitcoin Gold ETP (ticker BOLD in Europe), please visit 21Shares, and for our strategy information, please see our latest presentation.

Summary

The gold super bull is alive and well, and the low may even be in. The key is that gold will protect investors from the worst of the bond turmoil, but the big money in gold will be made whenever bonds stabilise.

Charlie Morris is the Founder and Editor of the Atlas Pulse Gold Report, established in 2012. His pioneering gold valuation model, developed in 2012, was published by the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) and the World Gold Council (WGC). It is widely regarded as a major contribution to understanding the behaviour of the gold price.

Thank you for reading Atlas Pulse - the Gold Dial remains in Bull Market. Please share your thoughts in the comments below or contact Charlie at charlie.morris@bytetree.com.

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Bitcoin Daily

It is too early to tell whether Bitcoin has bottomed, but the odds are improving. There’s an age-old theory by the chart watchers that when RSI diverges, it signals a change in direction. Like all things charts, sometimes it works very well, but you shouldn’t bet a kidney on it.

Bitcoin Weekly RSI

Also promising is Ethereum. It scores a 3 on the daily chart, meaning that it has been rising faster than Bitcoin in recent weeks. This is a good omen.

Ethereum in Bitcoin

Bitcoin is at block height 959,114. Halving takes place at 1,050,000, meaning there are just 90,886 blocks to go.

Bitcoin Halving Cycles

That ought to mean halving takes place on 13 April 2028, just 631 days away. The pre-halving rally ought to kick in by Christmas.

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Commodity Prices

Currently, it’s all about the energy mix. In contrast to the war in Ukraine, natural gas prices (green) have remained low while heavier fuels, such as gasoline (blue) and heating oil (black), have remained elevated. This is down to the Middle East supplying the world with heavier fuel grades.

Heating oil is a heavy product, similar to diesel and jet fuel, where the market is tight.

Oil Products – Past 10 Years

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“Global Trends tracks where global momentum is flowing — across countries, sectors, and stocks — giving investors the opportunity to act before the crowd.”

The World Index drops to a ByteTrend Score of 4 in USD. The price is just below the 30-day moving average.

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World Index – Developed Markets – Daily

Global Equity Breadth – CAPR

Although price breadth remains healthy, CAPR breadth continues to thin. That said, the neutral zone has widened as the bear trends fade.

Now that the AI trade is in correction mode, the leadership is even narrower. In this week’s stocks section, we highlight leading banks, some software, oil refining amid the Iran war’s reignition, and some REITs.

Net Winners

The winners-less-losers metric guides asset allocators. The banks are back with force, boosting their established leadership. This week also saw renewed vigour in energy stocks as the war in Iran resumed.

Sector Average Trend Score CAPR

The other sector worth mentioning is Real Estate, where the recovery is real. Healthcare is also an emerging contender, but these are still early days. What is clear is that, among the traditional defensive sectors, these have been the first to respond to the closing jaws; i.e. as tech hardware slides back, these sectors benefit.

Trend Type Performance in CAPR

As the performance jaws close, it means the weakest stocks are less likely to fall in CAPR terms. The chip stocks are worth trillions, so a little easing in them is well received across the rest of the market. There are even some new uptrends, mainly from Financials and Energy.

As you can see below, the jaws are closing. The emerging vs weakening trends (green vs orange) have already closed, but the leaders vs bear trends ( blue vs red) are just getting started. This last happened on such a scale in March 2000 and in November 2007.

Regions and Industries Average Relative Score

This table (below) shows the average CAPR score for each global industry, by region and in total.

Tech Hardware continued to weaken, as fears about valuation, concentration, and spending ran into Korean margin calls and China’s impressive Moonshot / Kimi model releases. Tech Hardware dominates the index, so as it falls, all other sectors see strength relative to the index, on top of the fact that capital flowing out of tech goes back into other areas, boosting them.

Banking & Lending continued to recover, as large US banks reported strong results due to large fundraising activity, such as the SpaceX IPO. Energy Producers bounced as the Hormuz crisis heats up again. Transport & Logistics stocks picked up, especially in the US, and at the bottom of the table, Home & Lifestyle (luxury) bounced a little as the AI boom creates more millionaires and jewellery, in particular, sees strong demand.

In the Americas, Property & REITs continue their impressive run, and Investment & Advisory stocks are picking up too. In Europe, it’s the banks leading the way, and in Asia, Construction & Engineering and Advanced Industrials are fading fast - a red flag for the economy there.

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Bitcoin Daily

The short-term price action is encouraging. Although it’s still technically a downtrend for the cautious observer, the recent low was immaterial, suggesting the downside pressure has eased considerably. Looking at the leading tokens, there is a sense of stability playing out, but it is early days.

Leading Tokens

It is a quiet week, but one with promise. Let’s hope the strength continues to build.

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This latest idea trades 89% below the share price high in 2000. That is a brutal lag, but in all that time, sales are 3.3x higher. Turnarounds can be highly profitable opportunities.

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“Global Trends tracks where global momentum is flowing — across countries, sectors, and stocks — giving investors the opportunity to act before the crowd.”

The World Index returns to a bullish ByteTrend Score of 5 in USD. The price is yet to make a new high. The ByteTrend models are showing the jaws closing, which means fewer new CAPR lows and far fewer CAPR highs. The market is consolidating, which could be the start of a major rotation.

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World Index – Developed Markets – Daily

Global Equity Breadth – Korea Local Currency

People talk about concentration in the US stock market, but Korea’s KOSPI index has over 50% in two stocks: Samsung and SK Hynix. Yet below the surface, Korean market breadth had been declining since May.

Korean Foreign Investment

Koreans are loaded up on leverage, buying 2x and 3x ETFs on margin, to get a slice of the action in these domestic AI champions. Foreign investors joined the party for a while, but in recent weeks have pulled out at unprecedented speed, as valuations reached nosebleed territory and trend strength began to wobble. Capital outflows of this magnitude, when coupled with high leverage, can cause serious damage. The risk is contagion to global tech stocks and beyond.

Oil

The oil price is still just a 1 on the daily price chart, but a move to $81 would see that change radically. With inventories drawn down for 4.5 months and no chance of peace in the Strait of Hormuz, stay long.

Energy Stocks

There are still several energy stocks marked as leaders despite the oil price correction in May and June. New highs seem imminent.

Net Winners

The winners-less-losers metric guides asset allocators. More sectors host the leaders, but it is notable how weak Asia is. Financials, energy and tech are dominant. Consumer defensives are still weak.

Trend Type Classification - CAPR

This shows what we mean by the Jaws. The number of leading trends is the lowest reading since we began measuring in May last year. Emerging trends are also weak, yet the bear side is normal. It means the leadership, which has been thin, is peaking in several areas. This market is tired.

Trend Type Performance

The Jaws are closing, meaning market performance is being driven by the weakest stocks. The leaders and emerging trends are giving ground back.

Regions and Industries Average Relative Score

This table (below) shows the average CAPR score for each global industry, by region and in total.

Few industries did well last week, as tensions in Iran were revived. Only Energy and Software rose notably, with Software continuing its multi-month fightback and Energy bouncing after a slump in the last few weeks.

Tech Hardware remains at the top, but is weakening slightly, and Advanced Industrials are fading too. Metals & Mining and Telecoms are two industries that continue to weaken, and Chemicals, Construction, and Diversified Holding companies are following suit.

In Europe, Banking & Lending remains strong, while Luxury (Home & Lifestyle) remains very weak. In the Americas, Healthcare and Insurance (defensive sectors) have bounced.

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Bitcoin Daily

Oil is up following renewed hostilities in the Middle East, which has reddened markets today. However, the past week has been constructive, with Bitcoin rallying alongside gold. This is evident because the dollar has become centre stage, and when that ends, so will the Bitcoin and gold linkage.

Bitcoin and Gold Correlation

The dollar uptrend is clear and breaking away. This will put downward pressure on financial markets should it be allowed to continue.

Dollar Uptrend

Yet in a piece of good news, Ethereum is gaining strength against Bitcoin. ETH trades not far above the 2022 low, which shows how little it has participated in this cycle. Yet it is starting to outperform as network activity is strong.

Bitcoin and Ethereum

Not only is ETH picking up, but so are some of the other Layer-1s as well. We are particularly interested in the new developments in AI Agents within the crypto industry and have added some exposure in our crypto model portfolio.

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ByteTrend - Average Weekly Trend Score

The big pharma companies are regaining some of their strength after a decade of underperformance.

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Healthcare vs the World

However, the biotech sub-sector, the faster-growing segment, is doing much better. It has still lagged the World Index, but we sense that it is changing.

Biotech vs the World

The catalyst is clear. The most productive user of faster computers and AI is surely this sector, where complex problems and simulations can be solved much faster and at a much lower cost. The industry is especially excited about AlphaFold, a mechanism for protein folding that was deemed impossible until AI, inspired by the AlphaGo program, which solved it. Several companies have shown trend improvement, and we have picked the best.

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“Global Trends tracks where global momentum is flowing — across countries, sectors, and stocks — giving investors the opportunity to act before the crowd.”

The World Index holds a ByteTrend Score of 4 in USD. The last touch of the max/min lines was min (red), hence not a 5 score until it touches max (blue) again.

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World Index – Developed Markets – Daily

Global Equity Breadth – Local Currency

The index had a good week, driven by higher breadth, which, as you’ll see below, came from the weaker groups. The CAPR trends are unchanged since last week and remain thin.

Net Winners

The winners-less-losers metric guides asset allocators. Leadership has constituents from every sector bar consumer defensives. Financial services dominate, with Asia noticeably weak compared to Europe and the Americas.

Industry Average Trend Score

Insurance, Investment, Transport, Health, and Software rise, while Mining, Energy, and Telecoms fall back. Many leading telecoms companies have fallen back into the bear group, and we highlight T-Mobile in the stocks section below.

Net Bullish Trends 0 - Local Currency

Healthcare shows up strongly in terms of price moves. The trouble is that it had been so weak for so long that it will take a little longer to show up more prominently in the CAPR tables. That said, several stocks have shown up in the emerging trends.

Trend Type Performance

The divergence between winners and losers has been wide, but for the first time in many weeks, the weakening and bear stocks are moving up more so than the leading trends. This is what we expect to see in a rotation.

Trend Type Performance - Europe

This stands out even more in Europe, which is experiencing the strongest rotation. The recent strength has been in Consumer and Financial stocks. It is fascinating how, in contrast to the Americas and Asia, the weakening trends have fared best in Europe. That is, oversold stocks should be bought rather than sold at this time – at least in Europe.

Regions and Industries Average Relative Score

This table (below) shows the average CAPR score for each global industry, by region and in total.

At the top of the table, Tech Hardware remains the strongest sector but is fading slightly, giving back performance to sectors like Banking, Advanced Industrials, Insurance, Investment, and Transport. All have picked up in recent weeks.

Healthcare has had the most notable bounce in recent weeks, while Metals & Mining and Energy have been the weakest. Diversified Holdings is also slipping.

At the bottom of the table, Software continues to claw back some of the relative performance it lost at the start of the year, while Luxury (Home & Lifestyle) is bouncing too.

Read the full update for free on our website:

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With all the information out there, we help investors by distilling our advice into model portfolios, explaining every new investment recommendation in real time. In this Q2 2026 update, I shall review our flagship product, The Multi-Asset Investor. I will also touch on the ByteTree Quality Portfolio, as well as our ongoing project to upgrade ByteTrend.io.

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Letter from Charlie Morris, CEO

The quarter began with yet another sharp recovery, following the sell-off related to the War in Iran. This follows the tariff crash in 2025, which also proved short-lived. Sooner or later, investors won’t be so lucky, and a bear market will follow. The long-term signs of excesses are clear to all, and it is a matter of time before the bubble bursts.

That does not mean investors should hide from the stockmarkets, but they should stick to the basics. Many good and cheap companies have been ignored in the latest phase of the tech rally. The focus on semiconductors to drive AI has sucked capital away from the lower-risk areas of the market.

This rally has distorted the market indices, just as it did in 1999, and the concentration has once again become extreme. A simple way to illustrate this is with the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index, measured against the S&P 500 Index. The Equal Weight Index (SPW) holds 0.2% in each stock, rebalancing quarterly. In contrast, the S&P 500 (SPX) has 33.3% in the top ten. SPW is more diversified, and the quarterly rebalancing acts as a long-term value strategy by repeatedly buying low and selling high.

S&P 500 Equal Weight vs S&P 500

SPW has beaten SPX since 1990, with most of the excess return coming between the dotcom bubble in 1999 and the peak in 2015, when the tech rally really got going. During the tech rallies in the 1990s and recently, SPW lagged by around 30%. Yet, when the music stopped, SPW outperformed significantly, as its lower exposure to the bubble meant there was less damage from the heavy losses in large-cap companies. Zooming in since the tech bubble peak in March 2000, the SPW has only faced a mild setback compared to the SPX and has gone on to do well in the subsequent bull market.

S&P 500 Equal Weight vs S&P 500 – Post-1999 Tech Bubble

This exercise demonstrates the extremes in today’s markets and that investors will come out on top by pursuing a more conservative investment strategy.

Another way to show the levels of exuberance comes from margin debt data. Investors have been running hard and leveraging up their trading accounts. The current reading shows data for May, and with June included, it would no doubt be even higher. Extremes in margin debt have preceded market downturns. Examples include 1972, 1976, 1987, 2000, 2007, and 2021. All of these were subsequently described as market bubbles, resulting in bear markets.

Margin Debt

Over the past year, the US semiconductor Index (SOX) has added $10 trillion of market cap and is now worth $16 trillion. To put that into perspective, that is the same as the total value of the EuroStoxx 600 Index, which includes the UK.

This reiterates our investment strategy: to be prepared for the worst because the cautious approach always wins in the end, just like the hare and the tortoise. Our ethos is value and momentum (early trends), which means identifying stocks and strategies that will prove resilient, combined with diversification.

A diversified portfolio is a robust portfolio. That doesn’t simply mean holding lots of assets, but different types of assets. The most important macro factor that drives portfolio performance comes from the behaviour of money itself. The Money Map illustrates this.

The ByteTree Money Map

Hard assets (Bitcoin, gold, value) do best during times of inflation, and financial assets (equities and bonds) do best when inflation is under control. Safe assets, such as gold, quality and bonds, do best when the economy is slowing, while value and growth benefit more from a growing economy. By holding a little of everything, generally skewed according to the prevailing winds, our portfolios are well diversified.

A useful proxy comes from market indices that track value, momentum, quality and gold. I show this over 10 years relative to the market. Gold was strong until January, when it reversed. Growth has been strong over the past three months, while quality has lagged. For those with a financial sense of humour, you’d be surprised that value has done so well.

Equity Factor Groups Relative to the World Index

That is because semiconductors were classified as value stocks, as historically, they have been considered high-dividend-paying cyclical stocks. Of course, the market has repriced them as growth stocks. The last time that happened was in 1999, and we know what happened next.

In 2026, emerging markets have done well because the index is heavily exposed to the chip sector through Taiwan and Korea. Japan has also had some exposure to the semiconductor trade. The US has led Europe and the UK since April, but not materially, while gold has slumped following a two-year surge.

Global Equities and Gold in 2026

I have recently embraced commodities, even more than normal, since the War began. Since last October, I have been reducing exposure to gold, gold miners, and silver following a strong run, but have held on to a core gold position in the Soda Portfolio.

I set out my long-term continued bullish reasoning for gold in last week’s Atlas Pulse. I have been writing Atlas Pulse on the gold market since 2012. What has kept me going are the common misconceptions.

In essence, gold acts as a reserve asset, and so long as the central banks are growing their reserves, demand for gold follows. This has picked up in recent years, and, on top of that, central banks have increased gold’s share of their reserves and reduced US treasuries. This pickup in reserve growth, combined with a higher share, has been a double whammy for gold.

Gold and Reserves

Reserve growth surged in the 1970s during the gold boom and cooled in the 1980s and 1990s during the bust. Reserves growth ran hard from 2000 to 2212, only to cool off and reaccelerate post-2018.

Yet, since the war in Iran, reserves have decreased, albeit slightly. This is likely from the Middle East, where there has been a short-term need for cash as tax revenues have fallen. With gold so strong, this became a reason for caution. But whatever the short-term factors, the long-term will always see reserve growth, which in turn drives gold. When we see the market stabilise, I am much more likely to add from here.

Commodities were expected to be a good diversifier away from gold and to have considerable relative value, while the war in Iran was expected to lead to supply shortages. Remarkably, despite a lifetime of hearing that it was the world’s chokepoint, it hasn’t. Inventories around the world have been used to fill the gap, while exports have risen from Russia, Nigeria, the USA, and others.

US inventories have been diminished to 1986 levels, but one observation is that their rate of decline has been between 1.5% and 2.2% per week since April. Yet these past two weeks have seen a decline from 2.2% to 2% to 1.2%. In other words, the rate of decline is declining.

US Oil Inventories inc. Strategic Reserve

Perhaps this means we have just witnessed the greatest supply miracle in the history of capitalism. In just a few months, the global supply chains have adapted. More supply, diverted supply, while bridging the gap with inventories. Add to that a fall in demand as consumers have embraced electrification, alternative supplies, and other workarounds.

It could be that oil exposure should return to zero in the portfolio, and I will address that over the coming weeks. I would like to see the ships moving not just out of the Strait but returning as well. Then we will know the risk of an oil crisis is behind us.

Webinar: Q2 2026 Review

In this webinar, Charlie and Kit will review the second quarter of 2026 for the Whisky and Soda portfolios, as well as an update on the semiconductor surge, oil, Bitcoin, Gold, and Quality stocks. They will also give an overview of Q2 and an update on markets as they see them.

Join us for this live webinar on Wednesday, 8 July, at 12 PM BST by signing up using the link below.

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The Multi-Asset Investor

The Multi-Asset Investor is a commentary and two portfolios, Whisky and Soda, that cover traditional assets. The portfolios are designed to be easy to replicate for investors managing their own money. Soda is low turnover and medium risk. Whisky is more dynamic and medium-high risk. It is written by Charlie Morris and updated weekly, with additional Flash Notes when immediate action is required.

The Whisky Portfolio

Whisky was doing well until late January, but has cooled off since. It is now 3.4% behind the FTSE 100 this year. That is not a great place to be, but I like our stocks and continue to change them when I no longer do. Most of the weakness has come from commodities, including gold stocks, grains, and oil. The quality stocks, which were a drag in Q1, are showing signs of strength. I am optimistic about this segment of the portfolio. The real problem has been not owning semiconductors and related AI investments, which drove the market higher.

After a 39% year in 2025, I suppose it was inevitable that 2026 would be challenging. That was rather like the spectacular 2020, which was followed by a soft 2021. That was another bubble year where I chose not to participate, and the underperformance followed. I need to learn to fall in love with bubbles rather than giving them a wide berth. But I don’t avoid them entirely, just lightly.

Whisky vs FTSE 100

Still, the longer-term record remains robust, with higher returns and higher risk-adjusted returns.

In Q2, there were sales in Glencore, Hiscox, Harbour Energy, and blockchain equities. These had done well, especially Glencore. There were many more purchases, including Berkshire Hathaway, two banks, an airline, and other value situations.

That performance comes to life in the chart below. The best year relative to the market was 2020, when Whisky rose and the FTSE slumped. It is during these darkest periods when a capital-preservation-first approach can have the best long-term payoff.

Whisky Portfolio Performance

The Soda Portfolio

Soda has also lagged this year, once again by holding conservative assets, such as commodities and gold. It is 5% behind the balanced index, which is quite depressing. The index is heavily skewed towards US equities, which has made it difficult to beat in some years and easier in others.

Soda vs FTSE Private Balanced Index

The shift towards quality investing hasn’t helped, but I am confident that it will. Gold and commodities have proved to be a drag. I also added Emerging Markets internet stocks in April, as a candidate to match the tech rally. Emerging Markets flew, but it was hardware rather than software or the internet that was fruitful. Furthermore, the value strategies were slow, as were the diversified funds, except RIT Capital. Thanks to them, at least we owned some SpaceX.

The longer-term performance is still good, but will really come to life when the US equity bull finally ends. It keeps on nearly happening, but each time it gets another shot in the arm.

Soda Portfolio Performance

I have always prioritised capital preservation over investment gains and will continue to do so. I have no doubt that when the market froth cools, good old-fashioned value investing will drive returns.

Visit our website to learn more about The Multi-Asset Investor and how to become a client.

ByteTree Quality

Last September, Kit Winder and I launched the ByteTree Quality Portfolio. The idea was to buy great large companies with strong market positions, stability, and high returns. These are the things long-term investors desire, because with the best companies, you can buy and hold.

Using low-volatility stocks as a proxy, you can see how much these have lagged the market since 2015, which is the same signal given between SPW and SPX earlier. In just six years, the world’s greatest and most established companies have fallen behind, just as they did in 1999.

Quality Proxy (Low Volatility Stocks) vs the World

Starting the Quality Portfolio last October might look early, but it has taken these last 10 months to build it. I am delighted to say that ByteTree Quality is now 94% invested, holding 24 stocks with one more to go. Kit does most of the hard work on Quality, while I provide the strenuous role of oversight. He has written detailed notes on each company, explaining why they have a long-term competitive advantage. As he has gained experience, the notes have gotten better and better.

The Whisky Portfolio focuses on value and momentum, meaning our companies aren’t necessarily the greatest, but they are undervalued. The Venture Portfolio is similar. As the cheap companies return to fair value, the hope is that investors make outsized gains.

In contrast, the Quality Portfolio buys companies that will hopefully beat the market by compounding at a higher rate – Buffett style. It has been a fabulous journey, and we only have one more stock to go. Some might say we started too early, but we are skating to where the puck will be, rather than where it is, and given it takes nearly a year to get going, I feel our timing has been perfect.

There has been some overlap between Whisky and Quality in a few stocks, but this is unlikely to remain the case over time. However, in the short term, these are the stocks that I am very happy to own. From Q3 2026 onwards, we will have a separate quarterly review for the Quality Portfolio, with transparent performance measurement.

Visit our website to learn more about ByteTree Quality and how to become a client.

ByteTrend

Another project that will soon come to fruition at ByteTree is the upgraded ByteTrend. We have built a global stock database, which shows the trends for over 2,500 companies. It is a significant improvement to the previous site, ByteTrend.io, and will be launched in the late summer.

It can be used to find semiconductor stocks and other stocks racing ahead, just as it can be used to find value stocks and new trends and investment themes in the market. In that sense, it is a powerful market intelligence tool. I am looking forward to sharing it with you as soon as it has passed rigorous testing.

Outlook

The quarter hasn’t been one of my finest, but nothing has changed. I still like gold and hunting for undervalued stocks. Sometimes, that doesn’t work, but fortunately for ByteTree clients, most of the time it does.

Please let me know your thoughts by emailing me at charlie.morris@bytetree.com or tweeting me @AtlasPulse.

Many thanks,

Charlie Morris

Editor, Venture

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The Multi-Asset Investor is issued by ByteTree Asset Management Ltd, an appointed representative of Strata Global, which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. ByteTree Asset Management is a wholly owned subsidiary of ByteTree Group Ltd.

General - Your capital is at risk when you invest; never risk more than you can afford to lose. Past performance and forecasts are not reliable indicators of future results. Bid/offer spreads, commissions, fees and other charges can reduce returns from investments. There is no guarantee dividends will be paid. Overseas shares: some recommendations may be denominated in a currency other than sterling. The return from these may increase or decrease as a result of currency fluctuations. Any dividends will be taxed at source in the country of issue.

Funds - Fund performance relies on the performance of the underlying investments, and there is counterparty default risk, which could result in a loss not represented by the underlying investment. Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) with derivative exposure (leveraged or inverted ETFs) are highly speculative and are not suitable for risk-averse investors.

Bonds - Investing in bonds carries interest rate risk. A bondholder has committed to receiving a fixed rate of return for a fixed period. If the market interest rate rises from the date of the bond’s purchase, the bond’s price will fall. There is also the risk that the bond issuer could default on its obligations to pay interest as scheduled or to repay capital at the maturity of the bond.

Taxation - Profits from investments and any profits from converting cryptocurrency back into fiat currency are subject to capital gains tax. Tax treatment depends on individual circumstances and may be subject to change.

Investment Director: Charlie Morris. Editors or contributors may have an interest in recommendations. Information and opinions expressed do not necessarily reflect the views of other editors/contributors of ByteTree Group Ltd. ByteTree Asset Management (FRN 933150) is an Appointed Representative of Strata Global Ltd (FRN 563834), which is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority.

© 2026 ByteTree Group Ltd

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Bitcoin Daily

With the price below the 200-week moving average, the weekly score drops to a 1. The long-term trend remains strong, and this condition marked the turning point in 2022.

Bitcoin Weekly

Since the 2017 peak, Bitcoin has maintained a 42% IRR using a regression, which is high compared to other asset classes (The Magnificent 7 big tech stocks delivered 27% on this basis). The price is 1.5 deviations below the trend.

Post-2017 Regression

It could simply be that Bitcoin has done well this cycle and that it is a period of cooling off. To demonstrate that, the Bitcoin network is alive and well. Last week, I showed record transaction volumes, and now, I show transaction values across the blockchain. Last week, we saw $13.5 billion of on-chain transactions, which is 5x the level of 2022. The underlying network remains in good shape.

Network Transaction Value in USD

Trading volumes are much higher, with CoinMarketCap reporting $35 billion per day. That is high compared to other heavily traded stocks, and equivalent to NVIDIA and higher than Tesla.

That said, investors are selling Bitcoin and, for that matter, gold as well. Last October, investors held 1,500,800 BTC, which has now fallen to 1,352,400 BTC.

BTC Held by ETFs

In dollar terms, we have seen this kind of selling twice before. In early 2025, it soon reversed. Since October, the rallies have been more muted.

BTC ETF Fund Flows in USD

Europe continues to accumulate, against the tide, mainly from the UK.

European Bitcoin Holdings

The malaise comes from the macro. Real yields, i.e. the bond yield less inflation expectations, are rising. This condition was seen in 2018, when Bitcoin fell 73.8%, and in 2022, when it fell by 64.3%.

Real Rates Provide a Headwind for Bitcoin

The current Bitcoin bear is long in the tooth, and the best news I can deliver is that real rates won’t rise forever. Sooner or later, they’ll turn. If they don’t, it won’t just be Bitcoin that feels the pinch.

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The 21Shares Bitcoin Gold ETP (BOLD) invests in Bitcoin and Gold. BOLD combines the world’s two most liquid alternative assets on a risk-adjusted basis. Due to their naturally low correlation, the diversification benefits of holding both assets have been unusually high. Bitcoin prefers risk-on market conditions, while Gold prefers risk-off.

The target weights last month were 43.2% and 56.8% (Bitcoin to Gold). Price changes over the month resulted in the last day’s weights being 40.7% Bitcoin and 59.3% Gold. This means the latest rebalance has increased Bitcoin by 2.7% and reduced Gold to meet the new target weights.

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BOLD Performance

In April, BOLD fell by 14.9%, while Bitcoin returned -20.3%, Gold -11.7%, and global equities -0.7% in USD terms. Equities have recently started to demonstrate strength against hard assets as rising real interest rates have caused the US dollar to strengthen. The AI boom has taken the attention.

Bitcoin, Gold, BOLD, and Equities in USD – June 2026

The Surge in Real Rates

Bitcoin has been weak since October, and Gold since January. The dollar has begun to rally, as real interest rates have surged. That is, the bond yield has risen, while inflation expectations have declined since the peace deal in the Strait of Hormuz. Spikes in real rates are highlighted below, and all of them coincided with Bitcoin bear markets.

Two-Year Real Rates

Gold’s weakness is related, as it does not like to see a fall in inflation or higher bond yields either. But more importantly, Gold is likely correcting from a powerful bear market in 2024 and 2025.

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Over the past year, BOLD has returned -3.9%, Bitcoin has returned -45.5%, while Gold has returned +21.3%, and equities +21.3%. BOLD had been moving in sync with equities, which have now broken away. It is rare for Bitcoin and Gold to both fall so significantly at the same time.

Bitcoin, Gold, BOLD, and Global Equities in USD - Past Year

The Rally in Semiconductors

Bitcoin and Gold were very much the centre of attention in recent years, but that has cooled off as semiconductors have stolen the limelight. With profits surging during the AI boom, this theme has become a focus for investors.

Semiconductors vs the World Index

Over the past five years, BOLD has returned +136.4%, while Bitcoin has returned +69.6%, Gold +126.4%, and equities +70.0%. The average return for Bitcoin and Gold was 98.0%, yet BOLD returned 136.4%, demonstrating 38.4% of added value above the average. This is mainly driven by rebalancing transactions. Note how BOLD remains ahead of Gold despite a weak Bitcoin.

Bitcoin, Gold, BOLD, and Global Equities in USD - Past Five Years

This point is best demonstrated by the Bitcoin price high at $19,041 on 17^th December 2017, which seemed extreme at the time. Since then, BOLD has returned +355.3%, while Bitcoin has returned +208.0%, Gold +217.8%, and equities +162.9%. For this time period, the average return for Bitcoin and Gold was 212.8%, yet BOLD was +142.6% ahead. Over these longer periods, BOLD has been comfortably ahead of both Bitcoin and Gold. While Bitcoin and Gold have seen similar returns, BOLD has stayed ahead. The recent weakness in both assets has dragged BOLD down to the average.

Bitcoin, Gold, BOLD, and Global Equities in USD - Since Bitcoin’s 2017 Price High

Monthly Rebalancing of the BOLD ETP

BOLD allocates to Bitcoin and Gold on a risk-adjusted basis using historical volatility calculated from daily price movements. The less volatile asset, which has lower daily price moves, gets a higher weight in the index at the end of the monthly rebalancing.

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Notably, Bitcoin’s 360-day volatility has been falling, while Gold’s has been rising. However, note that Bitcoin’s short-term 180-day volatility has risen in June. For Gold, the 180-day measure is still leading Gold’s volatility higher. The gap between the asset volatilities has never been narrower than it is today.

Bitcoin and Gold’s Past 360-day Volatility

Rather than investing the same amount of value in each asset, the BOLD strategy aims to hold equal amounts of “risk” in each asset and is therefore “risk-weighted”. The volatility of Bitcoin and Gold over the past 360 days was 33.5% and 25.7%, respectively. The increase in Gold’s volatility has been significant, and it has not been in this territory since the financial crisis in 2008.

If Bitcoin and Gold had the same volatility, the weights would be 50/50. Indeed, if Gold’s volatility were ever higher than Bitcoin’s, then Bitcoin would have a larger allocation. The volatility measures have resulted in new target weights of 43.4% for Bitcoin and 56.6% for Gold, using this formula.

Asset allocation is an important feature. Over the long term, the aim is to equalise the risk in each asset. In 2017 and 2018, BOLD had relatively low exposure to Bitcoin due to its high volatility at the time, which held it in good stead in the 2018 bear market. At other times, it has generally been in the 20% to 25% range, with the remaining balance in Gold.

Bitcoin: Daily Target Weight

The monthly rebalancing transactions, which repeatedly top up the weaker asset, have added significant value compared to a buy-and-hold strategy. Using the weight in Bitcoin, you can see how the monthly rebalancing brings the asset allocation back into line. Repeatedly doing this adds value while maintaining a constant level of risk.

Bitcoin: Daily Weight and Target Weight

The daily weights deviate much more than the monthly target weights due to the intra-month price movements between Bitcoin and Gold. For example, Bitcoin has beaten Gold over the last two months, and so Bitcoin’s exposure has been reduced back down to the target weight during the monthly rebalancing. This ensures the strategy maintains the optimised weights for Bitcoin and Gold.

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This process keeps the risk level, as defined by volatility, roughly the same across assets. That means BOLD maintains its risk level over time, without being overly exposed to either Bitcoin or Gold. This explains why BOLD’s volatility is so low, a key advantage over holding Bitcoin and Gold separately.

BOLD’s Volatility Is Comparable with Gold

Risk is not just a matter of volatility but of maximum drawdowns. Historically, Bitcoin’s drawdowns have been severe, and Gold’s drawdowns, in the minds of many, less so. But in the 1980s and 1990s, Gold experienced prolonged drawdowns, and that could happen again one day. By diversifying between the assets, the largest drawdowns have been dampened. BOLD drawdowns have been much lower than either Bitcoin or Gold alone. The current drawdown is 22.5%, which compares with the 25% drawdown seen in 2022.

Max Drawdown: Gold, Bitcoin, and BOLD

This is important as BOLD compounds returns by regularly locking in profits. Family offices, with long-term investment horizons, understand this principle. Many opt for conservative, compounding, absolute-return strategies over beating the index, as if a portfolio halves, it needs to double to get back to square one. By avoiding large drawdowns, compounding can take place at a higher rate over the long term.

Volatility Harvesting

Not only does risk-weighting reduce overall volatility, but the rebalancing transactions add value through a process known as “volatility harvesting”. As the paper by Bouchey, Nemtchinov, Paulsen, and Stein states, “volatility is a drag on the compounding effect.”

While Bitcoin and Gold travel along different paths, it is notable how BOLD has historically been highly correlated with the global M2 money supply, much more so than Bitcoin or Gold in isolation. BOLD has also been an efficient way to express this macroeconomic view. M2 has grown from $60 trillion in 2015 to $116.4 trillion today. During that time, BOLD has calmly beaten the M2 by 5.8x. That ratio of outperformance has eased back in 2026, following a strong run in the two prior years.

BOLD vs the Global Money Supply

Bitcoin and Gold ETF Flows

Over the past 90 days, Bitcoin and Gold ETFs have seen outflows. The correlation between the asset flows has generally been negative but it is currently positive. We assume this will not last for too long, as real rates peak and the dollar rally stalls.

The total value of Bitcoin and Gold ETFs is $510 billion, which is a $90 million drop since last month.

BOLD ETP

The 21Shares Bitcoin Gold ETP (BOLD) tracks the BOLD Index. The fund now holds $30.2 million in Bitcoin and Gold, held in safe custody with Copper for Bitcoin and JP Morgan for Gold. The GBP volume is shown in blue.

21Shares ByteTree BOLD ETP Price and Volume by Share Class in US$

BOLD saw outflows in June, in line with the broader trend in the Bitcoin and Gold ETF sector.

BOLD ETP Listings

The 21Shares Bitcoin Gold ETP (BOLD) is listed in Switzerland, Germany, the Netherlands, France, Sweden, Italy, and the United Kingdom, actively trading in CHF, EUR, USD, SEK, and GBP. The ticker is BOLD.

The 21Shares Bitcoin Gold ETP trades in the primary market, meaning that purchases and sales result in direct buy or sell transactions of Bitcoin and Gold from the market. For further information, please visit BOLDETF.com, which offers extensive data and charts to help investors better understand the benefits of the strategy.

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Recent Videos

Please watch our recent videos with:

• Charlie Erith, Wiston Capital (March 2026)

• 21Shares with Max Michielsen and Darius Moukhtarzadeh (March 2026)

• Chris Wood, Chief Equity Strategist at Jefferies (February 2026)

• John Reade, Senior Market Strategist at the World Gold Council (January 2026)

• Izabella Kaminska, Founder of The Blind Spot (January 2026)

• Adrian Fritz, Chief Investment Strategist at 21Shares (January 2026)

Product Details

Contact

For information on investing in BOLD, contact bold@bytetree.com.

If your investment firm or media outlet would like a private briefing on BOLD, we will be happy to oblige. If a physical meeting is not possible, we can arrange a Zoom call.

Further Information

• Kaiko Index Provider

• 21Shares Bitcoin Gold (BOLD) ETP

• BOLDETF.com

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